Trump is Winning

Not in the bag, but very strong results so far.

As of 10:30pm on election night things look good for Trump. In Florida, the only large state for which >95% of the results are in, he overperformed the polls by 6 points. He won by 13 while the polls as of yesterday had him ahead only 7 points. If he overperforms the polls in other states by anywhere close to that amount, he will win.

Betting markets put his odds near 80%. (Predictit gives him slightly lower odds than polymarket)

Trump is doing well in Georgia and North Carolina. He is leading in Pennsylvania. The New York Times estimates his win margin in Pennsylvania at 1.9%

Michigan and Wisconsin also slightly lean toward Trump. Since Trump appears poised to win Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona, he needs to win only one of Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania in order to win the election. Harris must win all three: Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania in order to get to 270 electoral votes.