The Numbers on the UK Muslim Grooming Gangs
Estimating the total number of victims.
1. Background
If you already know about the UK grooming gangs, skip to section 2.
The UK grooming gangs are back in the news. For decades, gangs of Muslim men, mostly Pakistani, have systematically abused and raped very young English1 girls. The Pakistani men (in their late twenties and thirties) target 11-15 year old girls, pretend to be their boyfriends, ply the girls with drugs, and then force them to become prostitutes. In addition to forced prostitution and gang rape, the adolescent girls are subjected to other forms of horrific physical abuse. One rapist expanded a 12 year old girl’s anal passage with a pump so that his friends could gang rape her. Another girl was burned alive.
The Pakistani men who do this see themselves as conquerors and they say so explicitly. Here is what one of them told the court after he was convicted:
“We are the supreme race, not these white bitches (pointing to police officers in court). You will not get a CBE. You will not get an MBE. You will get a DM, a destroyer of Muslims. You were born one thousand years too late… White people trained those girls to be so much advanced in sex. They were coming without hesitation to Rochdale, Oldham, Bradford, Leeds and Nelson and wherever… I curse you at night. I curse you and your family. You will understand. I curse the juries. I curse the media and most of you bitches. Your family will get it.”
They think that English 11-15 year old girls - who don’t wear the hijab and are raised in a sexually liberal culture - are all whores who deserve to be treated that way. Following the example of Mohammed, they are taking the English girls as sex slaves and they feel just as justified as ISIS fighters did when they forced Yezidi women to be sex slaves.
The most startling thing about the phenomenon is that the British police know about it and they look the other way. The police, government and mainstream media allow the grooming gangs to operate because they don’t want to be called racist. In 2004 when a Channel 42 documentary crew stumbled upon grooming gangs in Bradford, the police asked Channel 4 not to publish the documentary because it would hurt the ruling political parties in the upcoming elections. The British mainstream media until very recently were silent on the issue, only mentioning it to deny that it was happening, or to deny that Pakistani men were the perpetrators. There was a complete mainstream media blackout until 2014, when an official government report revealed that 1,400 girls had been abused in the town of Rotherham (population 257,000) and that the police had looked the other way. (You could have read about it before 2014 in non-mainstream media. The BNP, Britain’s fascist party was alerting the public about the issue as early as 2001).
2. Estimate
The thing that makes this scandal so horrifying is that the British government winked and nodded and allowed it to go on. (It’s still going on3). The fact of the government’s complicity is a huge part of the story. But we also want to get a numerical estimate of how many girls have been abused by these gangs. A problem that affects 100,000 people is more serious than a problem that affects only a few people, even if each individual case is horrifying.
There’s no good data on this (the government has actively avoided collecting data on the topic) so we’re not going to get a precise estimate. But the figures being bandied around differ by orders of magnitude.
MP Sarah Champion estimated that 1 million girls were victimized by the gangs. This estimate was in 2015.
Centrist billionaire Bill Ackman who was recently shocked to learn about the grooming gangs wrote on X that “hundreds of thousands” of girls had been victims.
The Free Press a news outlet run by Bari Weiss wrote that “thousands” of English girls had been serially raped.
Until October 24th of 2024, Wikipedia denied that the UK Muslim grooming gang phenomenon existed at all.
With the data available, we won’t be able to get a precise estimate of the number of victims, but we can at least glean a reasonable guess of the order of magnitude.
2.1 Rotherham
The best UK government report on the subject is the Rotherham Inquiry which was published in 2014. In the town of Rotherham there were 1,400 cases over the period 1997 - 2013.
The population of Rotherham was 257,000 in 2011.
1400 / 257,000 = .00545
So the number of cases was equal to 0.545% of the population of Rotherham. Notice that this does not mean that every person had a 0.545% chance of being victimized by the gangs. Almost all the victims were female. Older women’s risk of being victimized was much less than 0.545%. Younger women’s risk of being raped by the gangs was much higher than 0.545%.
2.2 Extrapolation to the rest of England
The population of England4 is currently 58 million. So if grooming gang case occurred in the rest of England at the same rate that they occurred in Rotherham, we would expect 0.00545 * 58 million = 316,000 cases in England over the 1997 - 2013 period.
But Rotherham came to our attention because it was especially bad. The rate of grooming gang activity in the rest of England was almost certainly less than the rate in Rotherham.
How much less? Was Rotherham a unique case or was it just the worst (within an order of magnitude) out of many similar cases?
Let’s look at Rochdale, which has also had reports of Muslim grooming gang activity. An independent review released in January 2024 found 74 victims who were sexually exploited between 2004 and 2013. It also identified 96 perpetrators. This is not an estimate of the total number of victims, it was merely what was found from a review of cases already in police records. Since each perpetrator typically has many victims, the total number of victims is surely higher.
However, let’s conservatively suppose that 74 was the total number of victims in Rochdale between 2004 and 2013. Rochdale’s population during that time was 170,000.
74 out of 170,000 over 10 years comes out to 4.4 in 100,000 people per year.
In Rotherham the rate was 1400 out of 270,000 over 17 years for a rate of 31 in 100,000
So already from the initial review of cases - not even a full estimate of the total number of victims in Rochdale - we’re already within an order of magnitude of the Rotherham rate.
Since the total number of Rochdale victims is greater than the number found in the review (remember the review identified more perpetrators than victims), the real rate of grooming gang crime in Rochdale is even closer to the Rotherham rate. Any estimate of total victims which posits less than two victims per perpetrator is unreasonable.
2.3 Should we expect one town to have a vastly higher rate of a certain kind of crime than the rest of the country?
The answer is no, if by “vastly higher” we mean more than an order of magnitude. The difference between the US city with the highest murder rate (New Orleans 58 per 100,000) and the US total murder rate (7.5 per 100,000).
2.4 Estimating an overall figure to one order of magnitude.
It isn’t just Rotherham and Rochdale. There have been reports of grooming gangs in towns all over the country.
Suppose the overall rate in England was 5x less than the rate in Rotherham. I think this is a conservative estimate. Then we would get 0.00545 * (1/5) * 58 million = 63,200 cases between 1997 - 2013.
However, the grooming gangs started operating before 1997 and they are still operating to this day. The Daily Mirror has found grooming gang victims in Telford from the 1980s.
The rate of these crimes has likely been increasing because the percentage of Pakistanis in Britain has been growing. Suppose the average rate from 1985 to 2024 is approximately equal to the rate between 1997 and 2013.
The population of England in 1991 was 48 million, in 2011 it was 53 million and in 2021 it was 57 million.
Then the total number of victims is about:
1985 - 1997: .00545 * (1/5) * (13 years / 17 years) * 48 million = 40,000 victims
1997 - 2013: 0.00545 * (1/5) * (17 years / 17 years) * 53 million = 57,770 victims
2014 - 2024: 0.00545 * (1/5) * (11 years / 17 years) * 57 million = 40,200 victims
Total estimated grooming gang victims in England: 137,970 victims
Once again, this is an order of magnitude estimate, not a precise estimate. Realistically, the number of victims is probably on the order of 100,000, not a million, as MP Sarah Champion claimed, and not “thousands” as The Free Press claimed.
Most victims were ethnically English, a few were ethnically Sikh.
Channel 4 is a British State-run tv channel.
Yes, this is an article about two men who were convicted, but only a small number of perpetrators are prosecuted. The ringleaders are prosecuted, but their customers are not, and there is not yet even talk of prosecuting the muslims who knew that their fathers, brothers and cousins were involved in this sort of thing, but said nothing.
Muslim grooming gangs appear to be more common in England than in other parts of the UK, so I’m extrapolating to just the population of England for now.
Heartbreaking
Reasonable